Great article - but one fundamental question that I have, is - how do we know whether this business follows the power law (with whales) or generates most of its revenue from its regular subscriber tiers? My rough math based on using North America ARPP of ~$20, suggests a 60-40 split between Tinder plus and the rest (assuming everyone is on the 6 month plan; if not it would skew further toward Tinder plus and not Gold/Platinum, which suggests the opposite of the whale theory.
I feel it is important to deduct the SBC from the FCF estimates. In the bear case FCF per share should be lower after deducting SBC.
Great article - but one fundamental question that I have, is - how do we know whether this business follows the power law (with whales) or generates most of its revenue from its regular subscriber tiers? My rough math based on using North America ARPP of ~$20, suggests a 60-40 split between Tinder plus and the rest (assuming everyone is on the 6 month plan; if not it would skew further toward Tinder plus and not Gold/Platinum, which suggests the opposite of the whale theory.
Great article bro