The Bristlemoon Global Fund returned -8.4 percent for the September 2026 quarter, with a -5.9 percent return for the month of September 2026, net of fees. Key performance contributors in the month of September included ASML, Sandisk, and Lam Research. Notable performance detractors over the same period included PAR Technology Corporation, Hemnet Group, and Baltic Classifieds Group.
In our September quarterly letter, we discuss the following:
A tough market beneath the headline indices. The S&P 500 ended September just 2% below its 52-week high, yet 83% of its constituents were more than 10% below theirs. We examine the unusually narrow leadership driving index returns, the weakness concealed by those headline gains, and the challenges this environment has created for the Fund.
AI is commoditising analysis. The investment edge is shifting to proprietary insights and judgment. We discuss what happens when analytical capabilities that once differentiated investment firms become available to everyone, and what this means for the future of investing. We also share how we are using AI to challenge our theses, uncover opportunities, and monitor the portfolio.
We also discuss four recent shorts added to the Fund:
The Campbell’s Company (CPB). Walmart’s push for lower prices is colliding with rising input costs and falling volumes, leaving Campbell’s with limited room to protect its margins. We explain how we identified the short, why weak results and a 36% dividend cut reinforced our concerns, how the high debt amplifies the risks for CPB as its earnings deteriorate.
REA Group (REA AU). Australia’s property downturn threatens both listing volumes and revenue per listing, with weakness in Sydney and Melbourne particularly significant given their contribution to revenue. We explore why we believe management’s guidance and market expectations remain too optimistic, and why REA’s valuation leaves the stock vulnerable to earnings downgrades and a lower valuation multiple.
MasterBrand (MBC). An AI screen surfaced this cabinet maker, which faces weakening construction and renovation demand alongside higher financing costs and tariff pressures. Its acquisition of American Woodmark has increased exposure to cyclical markets while adding a business with rapidly deteriorating earnings. We outline why our earnings expectations sit well below consensus and why the company’s debt burden creates a risk of breaching its lending covenants.
Polaris (PII). Dealer restocking has supported reported growth even as underlying retail demand has slowed. We examine why we believe that benefit is fading, just as comparisons become tougher and higher fuel prices and interest rates pressure customers. Against this backdrop, we question consensus expectations for roughly 64% growth in adjusted earnings per share in 2027 on only around 3% revenue growth.
As always, we welcome any thoughts, questions, or pushback on the letter. For prospective investors interested in learning more about the Fund, further information is available here, or we would be pleased to hear from you at info@bristlemoon.com.
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Disclaimer / Disclosures
The information contained in this article is not investment advice and is intended only for wholesale investors. All posts by Bristlemoon Capital are for informational purposes only. This article has been prepared without taking into account your particular circumstances, nor your investment objectives and needs. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and you should not rely on it as such. This document does not contain all of the information that may be required to evaluate an investment in any of the securities featured in the document. We recommend that you obtain independent financial advice before you make investment decisions.
Forward-looking statements are based on current information available to the author, expectations, estimates, projections and assumptions as to future matters. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other known and unknown factors and variables, which may affect the accuracy of any forward-looking statement. No guarantee is made in relation to future performance, results or other events.
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Bristlemoon Capital Pty Ltd (ABN: 22 668 652 926) is an Australian Financial Services Licensee (AFSL Number: 552045).
George Hadjia and Daniel Wu are associated with Bristlemoon Capital Pty Ltd. Bristlemoon Capital may invest in securities featured in this newsletter from time to time.